The Mix: Todd Stern on the Cancun Talks, Climate Policy and the Future of World Negotiations

Length 08:14

Created 12.17.10

Air Date 12.19.10

Video Transcript (opens in a new window)

Cancun marked 20 years of climate talks, and still the world has no legally binding climate treaty, one that would cut the world's carbon emissions. And, somewhat surprisingly, Stern tells me that maybe we don't really need one, that we might be better off if we don't have a big, sweeping climate treaty, at least for the time being. Here now in this week's MIX is my exclusive one-on-one interview with Todd Stern.

In Cancun, we saw results. There is some agreement, and in large part, consensus, with only a few nations on the outside looking in. What happened behind closed doors? I know that any series of negotiations includes a roller coaster of highs and lows.

[STERN] Yeah, this one would definitely fit that bill. You have to sort of look at this in its component parts. There were, from our point of view, two very important things that we were trying to bring into the negotiations from last year, which was that all major economies -- that includes China, India, Brazil, not just the developed countries -- would agree to cut their emissions, kind of in a similar way.

I think the most difficult, and what we went into this negotiation on with a real challenge was on those issues of capturing the pledges from last year by all the major economies and doing so in a transparent way. So that's where there was a bit of a struggle, and I think, in the end, we did very, very well, and I think that the world did very well.

[SUITERS] Do you see a perception gap between the realities of climate science -- the fact that the scientific community is virtually unanimous in terms of what we as humans are doing to our climate -- both cause and effect -- and what the American people see or believe about our climate, and the urgency the president says we need to address this problem?

[STERN] There is a gap, and I think that there's an educational effort that really needs to be made.

[SUITERS] By whom? The White House? The administration?

[STERN] I think by many. I think it's not just a question of the White House and the administration. I think they play a part, but I think that there's a community of scientists, there's a community of policy makers, I think there's a broad community of people who do need to try to underscore the reality of the problem.

I mean, if you look at what independent scientists in the United States, around the world, the National Academy of Science -- basically, every country's national academy of science, says, this is a real problem. It's not going away. It's getting worse. Temperature's going up. There is an overwhelming likelihood that it's going up because of the activity of humans, human activity.

And, yes, I think that there is, there is not as low an appreciation for that in the United States as some people might think. I think a lot of people here do understand that problem. But, yes, I think we need to do more in that direction. And if you look at, you know, what many candidates were saying in the recent elections -- particularly on one side of the --

[SUITERS] There are a lot of climate skeptics out there.

[STERN] There was a lot of skepticism expressed, and I don't think -- You know, Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a former great senator in the U.S. Senate, had a famous quotation, which he said, "Everybody's entitled to their own opinions, but they're not entitled to their own facts." And that's something important for all of us to remember.

[SUITERS] Is China surpassing the U.S. in terms of its weight, its influence in international talks? The two countries are one and two in terms of energy usage and emissions, by far -- no one's close. But China is ahead of the U.S. in both counts, and for all projections, will grow even further ahead of the U.S. as well. Do you notice a difference in negotiating power?

[STERN] Uh...I wouldn't say I notice a difference in negotiating power. I think that China is undeniably a huge player in this space. They're getting to be a very large player with respect to many issues, but in this one, it's really striking. They're now the largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world. By 2020 -- this period that we're talking about -- they're projected to be 60% bigger than the United States and almost twice as big as us by 2030.

[SUITERS] We're growing just barely, incrementally.

[STERN] We're barely growing. Basically, we've flatlined our emissions. And China -- and I don't even say this critically -- they've got a juggernaut of an economy. They're enormously impressive in what they've been able to do, but there's a down side in that, which is that that kind of growth, particularly when it's coal-based in terms of the energy source that drives it...

[SUITERS] Which is almost 80% of their electricity.

[STERN] Exactly. Then you have a huge impact with respect to emissions. So, yes, China is very important. They don't... Yes, they're important internationally, but I don't think that -- You can't underestimate the role and the influence that the United States continues to have.

[SUITERS] If the goal, ultimately, is a treaty, where every country in the world agrees to cut emissions or address the emissions problem, agrees to share clean energy technology, to share money to help adapt and mitigate the effects of climate change, what does a treaty look like? Is it 2,000 pages? Does it look like a piece of legislation?

[STERN] No. The truth is, I think, a treaty would look a lot like what we just did.

[SUITERS] The 30-page agreement from Cancun.

[STERN] Yeah, I mean, whether it's a little longer or a little shorter, I can't say, but again, my own message on this, again, is to not be overly focused on the legal treaty. There are difficulties with getting there, because, again, I think that countries who need to be, with whom we need to be on parallel footing -- and China is the most obvious example -- are not prepared to do that yet. So, we're not going to repeat Kyoto. Kyoto was an agreement that was premised on developed countries take legally binding commitments and no developing countries need to do it, no matter how big they are. So, we're not playing that game anymore, so we're not going to do it, we're not part of Kyoto, we're not going backwards.

[SUITERS] Especially when developing countries include India, China, Brazil.

[STERN] Sure. Listen, Tyler, developing countries right now -- now -- account for 55% of global emissions.

[SUITERS] And soon it will be above 60%.

[STERN] It will be 65% within 20 years. So, look, if we can get there, it would be a good thing. Many countries in the world are attached to the idea because it feels like it's serious. But the kind of agreement that we just did is also serious, we should carry it through, we should move forward down the road, in doing all the things that you just described would happen in a legal treaty, we can do now. And, you know, the day will come when things are ripe for a legal agreement. And we'll be there when that's the case. But we just shouldn't hang ourselves up until that day comes.

[SUITERS] This is one step on a long path. Todd, thank you very much for your time. I really enjoyed our conversation.

More than 190 nations took what many believe is a major step toward a world climate agreement in Cancun, Mexico. But is that deal significant or the United States? How do domestic differences on climate science and China's emergence as an economy – and a major emitter – play into it all? And if there ever is a legal world climate deal, what would it look like? In his first interview since returning from Cancun, U.S. Climate Envoy Todd Stern sat down with Chief Correspondent Tyler Suiters. He discussed the negotiations, the state of climate policy and the intricacies of negotiating with emerging nations on climate and energy issues.

Stern says the the most important issues for his team were that all nations, not just developed ones, agree to cut emissions, and that the process be transparent. That was also the toughest part of the negotiating process, he says. Once those issues fell into place, nations were able to agree on the fundamentals of issues like funding, technology, deforestation.

Stern also believes that those who believe climate change is a problem that need to be addressed – the administration, scientists, policy makers – need to work to educate the public. He says they need to “underscore the reality of the problem” that human activity is likely causing temperatures to rise, it is a problem, and it's not going away. He says many Americans do understand the problem, but the skeptical voices seem to be the loudest at times, especially during the last election cycle.

China's increasing influence on the world stage isn't necessarily a problem for the United States, he says. Stern says the Chinese don't necessarily have more negotiating power, but they are an increasing player on the world stage. He says China's emissions have already surpassed those of the U.S. and its growing economy – especially its large proportion of coal-based electricity – means its emissions will soar in the coming decade. That makes the Chinese an important factor in negotiations, he says, but the role and the importance of the United States should not be underestimated.

Stern says the ultimate worldwide climate treaty would not look much different than the agreements that were adopted this year in Cancun. He says there may be too much focus on a legal treaty, like the Kyoto agreement. That deal failed because the developing nations – which now account for 55 percent of world emissions – would not agree to binding targets. It would be a mistake to repeat that process, Stern says, because developing nations still aren't ready to commit to a binding deal. He believes those countries will eventually be ready to make a commitment, and the U.S. will be ready when they are. In the meantime, he says, the Cancun Agreements provide a way forward.

Extras

Todd Stern: The Full Story on Cancun, Climate Policy and the Future of World Negotiations

U.S. Climate Envoy Todd Stern gives Chief Correspondent Tyler Suiters the inside story on the Cancun Climate talks, how to deal with domestic differences on climate policy and what it's like to negotiate with emerging nations.

Watch now ...